Chinese urban landscape
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Economy & Finance

A Tale of Two Types of Cities: Demographic Divergence in Urban China

Winners and losers in China's urbanization

202011 min read
Archive Notice: This article was originally published on macropolo.org on 2020. MacroPolo was the Paulson Institute's in-house think tank (2018–2024). This archived version preserves the original research for continued citation and reference.

China's urbanization story is really two stories: mega-cities still attracting migrants, and smaller cities facing population decline. This divergence has profound implications for property markets, local finances, and economic development.

Shrinking Cities

Dozens of Chinese cities are losing population as young workers migrate to tier-1 cities. These shrinking cities face declining tax bases and oversupplied property markets.