Economic forecasting
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Economy & Finance

Reversion to the Mean

Why China forecasting humbles us all

20198 min read

Bulls and bears have both been wrong about China. The country hasn't collapsed, but it hasn't maintained double-digit growth either. Mean reversion explains more than dramatic narratives.

The Forecasting Record

Predictions of imminent crisis have been wrong for decades. So have projections of China overtaking the US by next year. Reality tends toward the middle.

Originally published by MacroPolo, Paulson Institute