China's Local Debt Hangover Map
Mapping the geography of local government debt across China's provinces—and the hidden LGFV liabilities that pose systemic risk.
The Hidden Debt Problem
China's local governments face a debt crisis hiding in plain sight. While official statistics show local government debt at around ¥38 trillion, the true figure—including debt held by Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs)—is estimated at ¥65 trillion or more. These LGFVs were created to circumvent borrowing restrictions and fund infrastructure, but they've become a systemic risk.
This project maps the geography of local debt across China's provinces, identifying which regions face the greatest strain and tracking how Beijing is managing the slow-motion deleveraging of local governments.
Debt by Province (Top 10)
Jiangsu and Zhejiang lead in absolute debt, while Guizhou has the highest debt-to-GDP ratio
Debt Growth: Hidden vs. Explicit (2015-2023)
Provincial Risk Assessment
- Guizhou (145% debt/GDP)
- Yunnan (110% debt/GDP)
- Qinghai (125% debt/GDP)
These provinces have limited fiscal capacity and face restructuring pressures.
- Jiangsu (98% debt/GDP)
- Sichuan (95% debt/GDP)
- Hunan (88% debt/GDP)
Large absolute debt but stronger economic bases provide some cushion.
- Guangdong (58% debt/GDP)
- Beijing (45% debt/GDP)
- Shanghai (52% debt/GDP)
Wealthier provinces with diversified economies and stronger fiscal positions.