Shared bicycles in a Chinese city
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Economy & Urban

The Rise, Fall, and Restoration of the Kingdom of Bicycles

How China went from 670 million bicycles to car-clogged cities—and found its way back to two wheels

August 15, 202311 min read

Key Takeaways

  • 1.China's bicycle mode share collapsed from 63% in 1986 to under 10% by 2010 as car ownership exploded
  • 2.The bike-sharing boom of 2016-2018 flooded cities with 23 million shared bikes before spectacular consolidation
  • 3.Post-consolidation, cycling has stabilized as a key "last mile" solution integrated with public transit

The Kingdom of Bicycles

In 1986, foreign visitors to Beijing encountered a scene that defined their image of China: rivers of bicycles flowing through broad avenues, an endless stream of Flying Pigeons and Phoenixes carrying workers to factories and markets. At its peak, China had 670 million bicycles—nearly one for every man, woman, and child. In major cities, bicycles accounted for 63% of all trips. The bicycle was not merely transportation; it was a marker of adult status, a wedding gift, a family asset.

This "Kingdom of Bicycles" seemed permanent to outside observers. It was, in fact, already crumbling. The same economic reforms that brought China prosperity would transform its streets beyond recognition within a generation.

The Great Decline

Beginning in the 1990s and accelerating through the 2000s, China's cities underwent the most rapid motorization in human history. Annual car sales grew from 1.6 million in 2000 to over 20 million by 2015. The bicycle's share of urban trips plummeted: from 63% in Beijing in 1986 to just 12% by 2012.

63%
1986
Peak cycling
38%
2000
Early decline
12%
2012
Motorization peak

The decline was not merely the result of rising incomes. City governments actively discouraged cycling, widening roads for cars, removing bike lanes, and restricting bicycle access to certain areas. The car became the new status symbol; the bicycle was recast as a marker of poverty and backwardness.

The Bike-Sharing Explosion

Then came 2016, and with it one of the most remarkable—and chaotic—urban experiments in modern history. Enabled by smartphones, GPS, and mobile payments, dockless bike-sharing companies flooded Chinese cities with brightly colored bicycles. Ofo's yellow bikes and Mobike's orange-and-silver machines became ubiquitous virtually overnight.

By mid-2017, over 70 bike-sharing companies had deployed an estimated 23 million shared bicycles across China. The industry attracted billions in venture capital. Unlocking a bike was as simple as scanning a QR code with WeChat or Alipay. Rides cost pennies.

"In the span of eighteen months, China went from virtually no bike-sharing to more shared bicycles than existed in every other country combined."

Boom, Bust, and Consolidation

The boom proved unsustainable. By 2018, the industry was in crisis. Streets were choked with bicycles—piled on sidewalks, dumped in rivers, heaped in vacant lots. Ofo, once valued at $2 billion, collapsed spectacularly, leaving millions of users unable to recover their deposits. Dozens of smaller competitors simply vanished.

What emerged from the wreckage was a transformed industry. Meituan (which acquired Mobike) and Hellobike (backed by Alibaba) now dominate a market that, while smaller than the 2017 peak, has become a permanent feature of Chinese urban life. City governments, burned by the chaos, now tightly regulate bike-sharing, setting caps on fleet sizes and requiring permits.

The New Urban Cycling

Today, cycling in Chinese cities looks nothing like the Kingdom of Bicycles era—and nothing like the chaos of 2017. Shared bikes have found their niche as a "last mile" solution, connecting subway stations to homes and offices. Private bicycle ownership remains low, but cycling as a mode of transport has stabilized.

More importantly, city governments have reversed course on cycling infrastructure. Beijing has built over 3,200 kilometers of bike lanes since 2016. Hangzhou, Shenzhen, and other cities have followed. The e-bike—an electric-assisted bicycle with a top speed of 25 km/h—has become the fastest-growing category, with over 300 million now on Chinese roads.

Related Analysis

Originally published by MacroPolo, Paulson Institute