China has committed to peaking carbon emissions before 2030, and our 2025 energy forecast examines the trajectory and key factors that will determine whether this target is achieved.
Clean Energy Momentum
China leads the world in clean energy deployment:
- Solar capacity additions breaking records annually
- Wind power expansion in both onshore and offshore
- Nuclear power plant construction accelerating
- EV sales continuing rapid growth
Challenges Remain
Despite progress, coal consumption remains high and new coal plant approvals have increased in recent years to ensure energy security. Balancing energy security with climate goals remains a key challenge.
Peak Emissions Timing
Our analysis suggests China is on track to peak emissions before 2030, potentially as early as 2025-2027 if clean energy growth continues at current rates.