A Nuclear Renaissance Around the Corner? Part I
China's aggressive nuclear buildout and the global push for clean energy have revived talk of a nuclear renaissance. We examine whether the conditions are finally right.
For decades, nuclear power has been the technology that was always just around the corner from a major comeback. High-profile accidents, cost overruns, and public opposition kept the industry in a holding pattern even as climate concerns mounted. Now, with China building reactors at an unprecedented pace and Western governments rethinking nuclear's role, the renaissance may finally be materializing.
Operational as of 2024
China's nuclear capacity goal
Nuclear in world electricity
China: The Nuclear Juggernaut
China has become the world's most aggressive builder of nuclear power plants. While the West wrestles with decade-long construction timelines and ballooning costs, Chinese projects typically come online in 5-7 years at a fraction of Western prices. State-owned enterprises like CGN and CNNC benefit from standardized designs, experienced construction teams, and streamlined approvals.
The 14th Five-Year Plan calls for 70 GW of nuclear capacity by 2025, with ambitious longer-term targets. China is also developing advanced reactor designs including high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and small modular reactors (SMRs), positioning itself to export nuclear technology to developing countries.
Western Rethinking
After years of nuclear phase-outs and project cancellations, Western attitudes are shifting. France has recommitted to nuclear, announcing plans for new reactors after a period of ambivalence. The UK is pursuing new builds at Hinkley Point and Sizewell. Even Germany, which shut its last reactors in 2023, faces questions about the wisdom of that decision amid energy security concerns.
The shift reflects recognition that achieving net-zero emissions is extremely difficult without nuclear's reliable, zero-carbon baseload power. Renewables alone struggle with intermittency, and battery storage remains insufficient for seasonal variations. Nuclear fills the gap—if the industry can solve its cost problems.
The Cost Challenge
Nuclear's Achilles' heel remains cost. Western projects routinely see 2-3x cost overruns and multi-year delays. Plant Vogtle in Georgia took 14 years and $35 billion to build two reactors. Until the industry demonstrates it can build on time and on budget, the renaissance will remain aspirational.
Read: China's Nuclear Power Ambitions →Small Modular Reactors: A Game Changer?
Much of the excitement around nuclear's future centers on SMRs—factory-built reactors small enough to ship by truck. Proponents argue SMRs can avoid the megaproject risk that plagues conventional nuclear by shifting construction to controlled factory environments. NuScale, Rolls-Royce, and Chinese firms are racing to commercialize the technology.
Skeptics counter that SMRs have yet to prove their economics at scale. The first commercial SMR projects face their own delays and cost pressures. Whether SMRs can deliver the promised cost reductions remains an open question—one that will likely determine whether the nuclear renaissance becomes reality or remains a mirage.