As China enters 2024, the Year of the Dragon, economic growth is expected to moderate from the post-COVID rebound seen in 2023. The property sector continues to be a major drag on the economy, while consumer spending remains cautious.
Key Forecasts for 1H2024
GDP growth is expected to slow to around 4.5-5% in the first half of 2024, down from the 5.2% achieved in 2023. Several factors contribute to this moderation:
- Continued property sector weakness with Evergrande and Country Garden restructuring
- Weak consumer confidence affecting retail spending
- Global demand softness impacting exports
- Local government fiscal constraints limiting infrastructure spending
Policy Response
Beijing is expected to maintain its supportive policy stance without resorting to massive stimulus. The focus will be on targeted measures to stabilize the property market and support consumption.